TD: The Curious Case of Young Families’ Shrinking Mortgages
Statistics Canadas Distributions of Household Economic Accounts (DHEA) contains a treasure chest of interesting facts and figures on the financial position of households. One trend that stood out for several quarters now is the steady decline in average mortgage balances of young families, even as mortgage debt has continued to rise for all other age groups.
Since the peak in Q3 2022, average mortgage balances among households where the primary earner is under 35 years of age have fallen by $15.5k. Compared to Q1 2023, the reduction stands at $11k. Over the same period, mortgage balances increased by $18k for households aged 55-64 and by $4k for those aged 65 and older.
The drop among younger borrowers appears to be at least partly explained by a decline in young people entering the housing market or opting for less expensive homes due to affordability challenges. Household formation in this age group has surged, growing at 2.5 times faster than other age groups in the last two years yet many of these new households remain renters. According to Statistics Canada 2024 Canadian Social Survey more than half of young people reporting being very concerned about their ability to afford housing. Home ownership remains elusive for younger generations with 35% of young adults renting, compared to 23% of older aged group.
https://economics.td.com/ca-young-families-shrinking-mortgage
CMHC: Summer Update: 2025 Housing Market Outlook
Canadas housing market will continue to cool in 2025 due to trade tensions, economic uncertainty, slower population growth and increasing unemployment. Home prices are expected to fall around 2%, with larger drops in Ontario and British Columbia as buyers and developers take a wait-and-see approach. Affordability remains a major issue and new construction is slowing. Rental markets are easing slightly as more supply comes online and demand softens. A gradual recovery is expected in 2026 as trade tensions ease and economic conditions improve.
Highlights
Trade tensions and slower population growth are contributing to a likely modest recession in 2025, dampening business and consumer confidence and slowing housing activity.
Home prices are expected to fall 2% in 2025 with larger drops in Ontario and British Columbia. Developers are delaying projects due to high costs, weak demand, and uncertainty.
A gradual recovery in the housing market is expected in 2026 as trade frictions ease, economic confidence improves and economic growth resumes.
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2025/summer-update-2025-housing-market-outlook
Mortgage Renewals Won’t Shock the System, but the Pain Will Linger
By TD Economics
An average mortgage holder who has recently renewed, or is about to, is likely absorbing an increase in monthly payments. Media headlines are raising alarm bells that the ongoing wave of mortgage renewals is a looming shock. So, it may come as a surprise to learn that aggregate mortgage payments in Canada are actually declining. Lets unpack how both dynamics can be true at the same time.
First, the part thats well understood: many households are facing higher payments. The most popular mortgage term is five years. So as an example, a borrower with a $500,000 mortgage who locked in a 2.5% mortgage rate in June 2020 would now be renewing at a rate closer to 4.0%, with monthly payments rising by about $320. According to a Bank of Canada report published earlier this year, about 60% of outstanding mortgages will renew by the end of 2026, and 40% are expected to renew at higher rates. This is the looming mortgage shock the media is warning about.
Yet nationally as odd as it may sound aggregate mortgage payments are on the decline, driven by lower mortgage rates. We forecasted this in our November 2024 report, and the data has since confirmed the outcome. In the final two quarter of last year, mortgage interest payments declined by an average of 1.7%, providing enough relief to push total mortgage payments into contraction. How can this contradiction seemingly exist? The answer lies in the composition.
https://economics.td.com/ca-mortgage-renewals